Which species will survive the global change challenge?

by Katie McQuaid, University of Waterloo
September 18, 2024

In a temperate montane forest in southern Québec, all is quiet. But if you dig a little deeper, you’ll see the landscape has a story to tell. Waterloo plant ecologist Dr. Julie Messier, alongside her collaborators from Sherbrooke, is uncovering vital insights into the changes affecting our forests — knowledge that could be crucial in safeguarding Canada’s temperate forests.

Her study derives from previous research in 1970 and 2012 that showed some species were thriving after 40 years of global change, while others were declining, and it wasn’t clear why. “Many factors can change how favourable an environment is, and a lot of them are based on climate change and air pollutants,” Messier said. “This community experienced 1.5 C of warming since the first study and significant atmospheric nitrogen deposition, both are big changes to adjust to. In response, some species became more abundant overall, whereas others saw a decline.”

Messier and her team built on this data to answer two questions: first, how did the traits of the forest community change? Second, what traits could predict the shifts in species elevation and abundance over this period? “We wanted to test the hypothesis that some species had specific traits allowing them to do well, which we hoped would enable us to predict future changes better,” she said.

Keep reading: https://uwaterloo.ca/news/which-species-will-survive-global-change-challenge

Read the Ecology paper: https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecy.4389